Background
Patrick Nill is a futures trader specialising in volume profile and order flow analysis. He's known in the competitive trading space for using auction market theory to identify high-probability trade locations based on where volume has been transacted, rather than relying on traditional technical indicators.
Core Methodology
Nill's approach centres on auction market theory — the idea that markets move between balance (value areas where volume concentrates) and imbalance (directional moves away from value). By mapping where the most volume has traded, he identifies areas of acceptance and rejection that provide higher-probability entry and exit points than traditional support/resistance.
Key Trading Rules
- Map the Volume Point of Control (VPOC) — the price with the highest traded volume — as the day's equilibrium
- Identify the Value Area (70% of volume) as the expected trading range
- Trade directionally when price breaks and holds outside the Value Area
- Mean-revert when price returns to the Value Area from an extreme
- Use delta (buying vs selling volume) to confirm directional bias at key levels
- Focus on the first 30–60 minutes of RTH to establish opening type (drive, test, rejection)
Key Concepts
Books & Resources
Markets in Profile by James Dalton. Mind Over Markets by James Dalton. Volume Profile course content.